THE VOTE
Georgia’s new election law sparks a debate over voter suppression vs. election security.
What To Know.
Why It Matters.
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Why It Matters:
- New: Georgia’s new election law is the first major state-level election law to pass after the heavily contested 2020 election. Hundreds of election bills are working through state houses nationwide.
- Notable: Georgia’s election was particularly close in both presidential & senatorial races, with Dems winning all 3 elections (the first presidential election won by a Democrat in GA in 3 decades).
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What Happened:
“We quickly began working with the House and Senate on further reforms to make it easier to vote and harder to cheat. The bill I signed into law does just that.”
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ABSENTEE VOTING
- Voters may request a ballot 78 – 11 days before an election. Previously, they could start requesting ballots 180 days before, and (in most counties) up until the Friday before Election Day.
- Voters must verify their identity via their SSN or a # from a state-issued ID; before, they could just sign their name.
- The new law requires drop boxes to be available for absentee voters, but limits the number, location & hours of operation.
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EARLY VOTING
- Counties are now required to offer in-person early voting for general elections on two Saturdays, with Sundays being optional. Previously, only one Saturday was required.
- Early voting is prohibited before 7 a.m. and after 7 p.m. Previously, counties could set their own hours.
- For runoff elections, early voting will take place for about a week. Previously, it took place for 3 weeks.
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OTHER PROVISIONS
- Voters who vote in person but outside their designated precinct will only have their vote counted if they vote after 5 p.m.
- The legislature has more influence over the State Election Board, which has more power over county election officials and may suspend them.
- It’s now a crime to hand out water/food within 150 ft. of a polling station and within 25 ft. of a person in line to vote.
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“I told him exactly how I felt: that these bills were not only voter suppression, but they were in fact racist, and they are an attempt to turn back time to Jim Crow.”
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“There’s a real — and bipartisan — misunderstanding about whether making it easier or harder to vote, especially by mail, has a significant effect on turnout or electoral outcomes. The evidence suggests it does not.”
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Remember - states remain in charge of state/federal elections but Georgia's law already faces a number of legal challenges by critics. Separately, the federal govt. is also weighing the establishment of federal election standards. The "For the People Act" passed the Democrat-controlled House in March.
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Wild West Showdown
Political forces face off.
The road ahead for America’s most populated state (and a peek at its unique past) as California’s governor confronts a recall effort.
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RECALL 101
- 19 states and D.C. allow voters to recall an elected state official. Most states, incl. CA, don’t require a specific reason.
- Organizers first apply with the state for a recall petition. Next, they circulate the petition to gather the required number of signatures (varies by state).
- If req’d # of signatures are verified, a recall measure goes on the ballot asking voters IF they want a recall & WHOM they want as the replacement.
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What’s Happening Now
This recall effort against Gov. Newsom beginning last year – some report February; others say June – is the sixth recall attempt since his 2018 election.
The momentum to recall Gov. Newsom gathered steam as controversy over his strict COVID policies (and his behavior at times, such as violating his own COVID rules at a famous upscale restaurant) received national attention.
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HISTORICAL CONTEXT:
- Recall efforts are rare nationwide, but they’re not so unusual in California.
- History: Since 1913, there have been 179 attempted recalls in CA. 10 made it to the ballot, resulting in the recall of 6 elected officials – incl. 1 governor. The only other state to successfully recall a governor was North Dakota in 1912.
- Recalls have real consequences: CA voters recalled Gov. Davis (D) and elected Gov. Schwarzenegger (R).
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“Unaffordable housing. Record homelessness. Rising crime. Failing schools. Independent contractors thrown out of work. Exploding pension debt. And now, a locked down population while the prisons are emptied. Hold Gavin Newsom accountable. Gavin Newsom must go.”
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“It’s about immigration. It’s about our health care policies. It’s about our criminal justice reform. It’s about the diversity of the state. It’s about our clean air, clean water programs, meeting our environmental strategies.”
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Why It Matters: California, the most populated state in the nation, has one of the largest economies in the world. Gov. Newsom has been a rising star in the Democratic party, with eyes towards the White House. The deadline to collect signatures supporting the recall is March 17th – signatures will need to be verified before next steps.
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The final step in the 2020 U.S. presidential election prior to Inauguration Day happens in Congress.
What Happens
Why It Matters
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BACKGROUND
- Before Election Day: Each state’s political parties nominate *electors* (Electoral College members) who *usually* pledge to vote for their party’s candidate (the U.S. Constitution doesn’t require it, but most states do).
- After Election Day: The results in each state determine which electors (Republicans or Democrats) will cast their ballots about 6 weeks after Election Day.
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January 6 at 1 p.m. EST
- Federal law mandates the House & Senate meet in joint session to count the certified Electoral College votes.
- The vice president (Senate president) presides in a mostly ceremonial role.
- Two House members & two senators act as “tellers” who read & count the Electoral College votes from each state.
- Any senator or House member may object to counting an electoral vote.
- The candidate w/ majority vote wins.
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The Objection Process
- An objection must be in writing & signed off by at least one senator & one House member.
- No specific reason required; objections must be stated “clearly and concisely.”
- The House & Senate meet separately, up to 2 hours, to debate the objection; the lawmakers then vote on it.
- *If* an objection passes by a majority in both the House & Senate, the vote is not counted. If not, the objection fails.
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The Counting Process
Under the 12th Amendment:
- The presidential and vice presidential candidates must *both* receive a majority of the 538 Electoral College votes (at least 270) in order to win.
- *If* no pres. candidate receives 270 votes, the House alone elects the pres.
- *If* no VP candidate receives 270 votes, the Senate alone elects the VP.
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Historical Context
We’ve only seen formal objections twice since 1887.
Recent history: In Jan. 2017, then-Vice Pres. Biden oversaw the joint session. It took 41 minutes to count the 2016 Electoral College votes. Democrat members of the House tried to object – but failed because they could not get a senator to sign off on an objection.
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A growing number of Republican lawmakers plan to object to electoral votes in several states. The objections are expected to fail, however, since Republicans do not have enough votes in either the House or Senate. How long this joint session and electoral count will take is unknown.
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ALL EYES ON GEORGIA
In 2021, the spotlight remains on two 2020 Senate races.
What to know about the high-stakes Georgia runoff elections
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About The U.S. Senate
- The Senate has 100 lawmakers: two from each state.
- Senators are elected to 6-year terms.
- The U.S. Vice President is the president of the Senate and serves as the tiebreaker when there’s a 50-50 vote.
- The Senate & House of Representatives share legislative (lawmaking) power.
- Senate’s “Sole Powers”: impeachment trials or confirming Presidential appointees (e.g. federal judges).
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Runoff Elections 101
- In most states, the candidate with the majority of votes is declared the winner.
- In the 10 states where runoff elections are mandated, runoffs are triggered when no candidate receives a certain percentage of the vote. Percentage thresholds vary by state.
- In GA, a candidate must receive over 50% of the vote to win. If not, the two candidates with the most votes *automatically* face-off in a runoff.
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Sen. David Perdue (R) vs. Jon Ossoff (D)
- Perdue finished first, receiving 49.7% of the vote compared to Ossoff’s 47.9% — a difference of approx. 88,100 votes.
- Before getting elected in 2014, Sen. Perdue served as the CEO of Reebok and Dollar General.
- Ossoff (33) worked as a congressional aide before launching a career as a journalist/media executive. If he wins, he’d be the youngest sitting senator.
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Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) vs. Rev. Raphael Warnock (D)
- Warnock finished first, receiving 33% of the vote compared to Loeffler’s 26% — a difference of approx. 343,800 votes.
- 20 candidates faced-off in the race. The third runner-up was a Republican who received nearly 20% of the vote.
- Loeffler was appointed in 2019 to temporarily fill a vacated Senate seat; the winner will serve out the final two years of that retired senator’s term.
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Why These Races Matter
- The outcomes will determine which party controls the Senate. Republicans currently control the Senate 50 to 48.
- Democrats need both Ossoff *and* Warnock to win to get to a 50-50 split.
- REMEMBER: Vice President-elect Kamala Harris will serve as the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.
- FYI: No GA Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race since 2000.
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While past precedent favors Republicans winning GA runoff elections, Pres-elect Biden became the first Democrat since 1992 to win the state as a presidential candidate (by approx. 12,000 votes). Voter participation in GA's runoff races is historic, with early voting surpassing past records; results expected in several days.
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ELECTION 2020
Putting aside the headlines, ongoing ballot counting, and lingering lawsuits —
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
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DECEMBER
- Dec. 8: Federal deadline for contested elections to be resolved via state laws.
- Dec. 14: Members of the Electoral College meet in their respective states to vote via paper ballot, count, and certify their votes. Those certifications are paired with governors’ certifications, and sent to state & federal officials.
- Dec. 23: Federal deadline for state & federal officials to receive certifications.
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JANUARY
- Jan. 3: The 117th Congress (Senate & House of Representatives) is sworn in.
- Jan. 6: Congress meets in joint session to count Electoral College votes. Members may object to a state’s vote results. If there’s objection by at least one person from both the House & Senate, Congress recesses briefly for a debate. If the objection is approved by House & Senate, that vote is excluded.
- Jan. 20: Inauguration Day
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WHAT ABOUT THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN'S LAWSUITS CHALLENGING RESULTS? Given the upcoming federal deadlines, the courts will likely expedite the remaining lawsuits (many others have already been dismissed). However, most legal scholars agree the suits are unlikely to change the ultimate outcome of the election.
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Runoffs & Recounts
Two words you’ll likely hear often in the days & weeks ahead…
What they mean
Why they matter
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BACKGROUND
- Election laws vary by state and also come into play in federal elections.
- Runoff elections are triggered when no candidate receives a certain percentage of the vote. Percentage thresholds vary by state.
- Recounts happen when the margin of victory between two candidates falls below a certain number or percentage. In states with recounts, they happen either automatically or by request.
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Ex: GA Runoff Law
- No winner has been declared in either of Georgia’s two Senate races, and both are headed for a runoff.
- Under GA law, a candidate must receive more than 50% of votes to win. If not, the two candidates with the most votes face off again in a second election.
- Runoff races will take place on January 5 — *after* the new Congress (House & Senate) is sworn in on January 3rd.
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Ex: GA Recount Law
- In Georgia, there are legal mechanisms in place for a recount at the request of a candidate or in case of potential error in paper ballot counts.
- Three days after Election Day, the Georgia Secretary of State announced there will be recount of the pres. election votes, calling the results “too close to call.”
- Recount results are expected by the end of November.
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WHY THEY MATTER
- The outcome of the GA runoff races could shape the balance of power in the U.S. Senate. Currently, the results indicate Republicans hold a majority in the incoming Senate. Remember: VP serves as the tiebreaker in the Senate.
- The outcome of the GA recount could impact the presidential election. GA is one of the swing states where former VP Joe Biden is the projected winner (at last count, by approx. 10,000 votes).
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FYI: Under federal law, different deadlines exist for receipt of ballots from citizens serving in the U.S. military or living overseas; many of these ballots have yet to be incorporated into the state counts currently reported. In Georgia, as of Friday nearly 9k votes cast by U.S. military personnel and those living abroad had yet to be counted.
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2020 BALLOT BOX
It’s not just about the presidency.
Here’s a sampling of the 100+ measures – in 32 states and D.C. – which may change American life.
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BACKGROUND
- Americans can directly participate in their state’s democratic process through ballot measures.
- Ballot measures take two major forms – either originating through the state government of elected officials, OR by voters themselves (who gather the requisite number of signatures for a measure to make it onto the ballot).
- We selected a few of the key issues voters will weigh-in on nationwide.
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DRUGS
Legalizing medicinal marijuana: Mississippi and South Dakota.
Legalizing recreational marijuana: Arizona, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.
Legalizing psilocybin (aka magic) mushrooms: Oregon. Meanwhile, a ballot measure in D.C. would make psilocybin crimes a “low priority” for police.
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$$$
- California: Whether to overturn a recently passed law that eliminates cash bail and relies on risk assessments when considering pre-court release.
- Florida: Whether to raise the minimum wage from $8.56 to $15 by 2026.
- Illinois: Whether to replace the flat-tax system in place since 1969 (everyone pays same % regardless of income) with a graduated income tax (people who make more would pay more).
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ABORTION
Colorado: Whether to ban abortions after 22 weeks of pregnancy unless needed to save the life of the mother.
Louisiana: Whether to amend the state constitution to add language declaring that nothing in the constitution should be interpreted as protecting the right to or funding of an abortion. Otherwise, the state constitution would remain as is – w/o specific language on abortion rights.
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“EDITING” THE PAST
- Alabama: Whether to allow the state gov’t to remove “racist language” from the state’s 119-year-old constitution.
- California: Whether to allow affirmative action policies, undoing a 1996 ban on use of race and sex consideration in hiring & university admissions.
- Utah: Whether to remove gender-specific language from the state constitution, meaning phrases like “all men” would be edited to “all people.”
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California voters will weigh in on a ballot measure to decide whether rideshare and delivery drivers who work for app-based businesses (ex: Uber) should continue to be treated as independent contractors - exempting them from a law that would treat them as employees (with workplace protections, like minimum wage).
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What About The President’s Taxes?
The New York Times says it has what many have sought for decades – the personal and business tax records of Pres. Donald Trump.
What To Know
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Disclaimer:
- The New York Times says it obtained federal taxes spanning two decades for Pres. Trump and his businesses “by sources with legal access to it” but doesn’t say how or from whom.
- To date, the NYT is the only news outlet with access to the records – preventing fact-checking & double-sourcing.
- NYT says it has the right to publish the information, citing the First Amendment.
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The NY Times Reports:
- NYT’s initial reporting states Pres. Trump paid $750 in federal income taxes in 2016 & 2017 and $0 in most of the past 15 years. NYT says the records show his companies are under financial stress, and that he personally owes $400M+ in debts in the next four years.
- Follow-up NYT reports state Pres. Trump has questionable Chinese bank accounts, write-offs, & uses the presidency for his financial benefit.
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Why It Matters:
- Pres. Trump has active and ongoing international family businesses, which are privately held and not required to publish quarterly earnings releases. This makes his background unique and unlike a career politician – but also leads to questions by critics.
- Every U.S. President since Jimmy Carter has voluntarily released their taxes to demonstrate financial transparency. Pres. Trump has not.
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Two Sides:
Critics of Trump: Records prove a long history of tax avoidance and show Pres. Trump is not as financially successful as he claims, and thus vulnerable to foreign influence for his own financial gain.
Supporters of Trump: The NYT report is a “hit piece” based on records obtained illegally, which show Pres. Trump paid millions in taxes, and took advantage of legal tax credits and depreciations.
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“Their numbers were wrong.”
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“I think he really is not a very good businessman … The fact that he’s a bad businessman does not mean that he’s not also cheating on his taxes.”
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“The New York Times account of President Trump’s tax returns reveal far more than his personal ability to avoid taxes. They show how the tax law can make it easy for the very wealthy to avoid taxation. And they reveal more than deficiencies in the tax law.”
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“No law barred The Times from publishing its article and if there had been one it would in all likelihood be unconstitutional.”
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We can't confirm NYT's reporting, but we can confirm that nearly half of all Americans don't pay federal income taxes because they make either too little or too much (and have accountants to help them "strategically plan" avoiding taxes). No person with direct knowledge of Pres. Trump's taxes has corroborated the NYT report.
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What About Hunter Biden?
A report in the New York Post ignites allegations against the son of presidential candidate Joe Biden, while raising questions about the actions of the former Vice President himself.
What To Know
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Disclaimer:
- The New York Post says it obtained information in its report from a laptop hard drive belonging to Hunter Biden.
- After publishing a debut story on October 14, the Post is the only media outlet with access to the specific information highlighted in this report.
- While some news outlets have covered additional developments (which we will summarize here), we are limited in our ability to fact-check & double-source.
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The NY Post Reports:
- In 2019, an unidentified man (allegedly Hunter Biden) dropped off a laptop at a Delaware computer repair shop.
- That laptop contained a “massive trove” of personal & business information on Hunter Biden.
- The shop’s owner turned over the computer to authorities & made a copy of the hard drive, which was given to Rudy Giuliani’s lawyer; Giuliani later gave it to the NY Post.
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Why Does It Matter?
The report has many allegations – here’s the main one:
- Hunter Biden leveraged his father, both as VP and after, for his own financial benefit, specifically for business deals in Eastern Europe and China.
- VP Biden was influenced – willingly or not – by his son’s bidding, while in political office and/or shortly after.
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Two Sides
- Critics of Biden: The laptop contains “evidence” of unethical, potentially illegal behavior. In short, the Bidens are a part of a political class playing by their own rules, making America vulnerable to foreign influence for their own gain.
- Supporters of Biden: The report is a political “smear.” The laptop records are fake or even a “plant” as part of a Russian disinformation campaign to skew the presidential election.
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“Hunter Biden’s laptop is not part of some Russian disinformation campaign.”
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“…the FBI can neither confirm nor deny the existence of any ongoing investigation or persons or entities under investigation…”
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“The New York Post never asked the Biden campaign about the critical elements of this story … we have reviewed Joe Biden’s official schedules from the time and no meeting, as alleged by the New York Post, ever took place.”
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“I have heard Joe Biden say he has never discussed his dealings with Hunter. That is false.”
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BIG PICTURE: We can't confirm the NY Post reports OR the existence of the alleged FBI investigation into Hunter Biden. The story could be false, in which case nothing will come of these reports. Or it could be true, and part of a larger story.
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BATTLEGROUND
2020
A deeper dive on some of the states up for grabs in this presidential election & why they matter.
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THE BASICS
- The Electoral College has 538 electors. It takes 270 to win the presidency.
- Each state receives the # of electors equal to its # of senators (two) & representatives (based on population).
- 48 states & DC allocate electoral votes in an all or nothing manner based on the state’s popular vote winner.
- Pres. Trump won the Electoral College votes (304 v. 227); Hillary Clinton won the popular vote (48% v. 46%).
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ARIZONA
The Grand Canyon State
- Electoral College Votes: 11
- 2016 Popular Vote: Pres. Trump won by less than 92K votes
- FYI: No Democrat pres. candidate has won AZ since 1996 (Bill Clinton), but there was a notable purple wave during the 2018 midterm elections.
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FLORIDA
The Sunshine State
- Electoral College Votes: 29
- 2016 Popular Vote: Pres. Trump won by over 112K votes
- FYI: The last Republican pres. candidate to win without FL was Calvin Coolidge (1924). Only two Democrat candidates have ever made it to the White House without FL – John Kennedy (1960) and Bill Clinton (1992).
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GEORGIA
The Peach State
- Electoral College Votes: 16
- 2016 Popular Vote: Pres. Trump won by more than 210,000 votes.
- FYI: No Democrat pres. candidate has won GA since 1992 (Bill Clinton), but Democrats made significant inroads during the 2018 midterm elections.
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IOWA
The Hawkeye State
- Electoral College Votes: 6
- 2016 Popular Vote: Pres. Trump won by over 145K votes.
- FYI: In the last 12 presidential elections, IA voted for Republicans six times and for Democrats six times.
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MICHIGAN
The Great Lakes State
- Electoral College Votes: 16
- 2016 Popular Vote: Pres. Trump won by less than 11K votes.
- FYI: 2016 was the first time MI voted Republican during a presidential election since 1988 (George H. W. Bush).
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OHIO
The Buckeye State
- Electoral College Votes: 18
- 2016 Popular Vote: Pres. Trump won by less than 450K votes.
- FYI: No Republican candidate has made it to the White House without winning OH dating all the way back to 1860 (Abraham Lincoln). No candidate has won the presidency without winning OH since 1960.
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PENNSYLVANIA
The Keystone State
- Electoral College Votes: 20
- 2016 Popular Vote: Pres. Trump won by less than 45K votes.
- FYI: 2016 was the first time PA voted Republican during a pres. election since 1988 (George H. W. Bush).
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WISCONSIN
The Badger State
- Electoral College Votes: 10
- 2016 Popular Vote: Pres. Trump won by less than 23K votes.
- FYI: 2016 was the first time WI voted Republican during a presidential election since 1984 (Ronald Reagan).
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These aren't the only states to watch this year. Expect to hear a lot about others that have voted consistently for one party but where margins have tightened in recent years - like Minnesota, which has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1972. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the state, but by less than 45,000 votes.
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When Will I Know?
Election Results 2020
A Supreme Court ruling on voting in a critical swing state highlights why we *might* not know the results of the 2020 election on Election Day.
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BIG PICTURE
- Mail-in, absentee & early voting laws vary by state. Many states expanded these options due to COVID-19.
- With less than two weeks to go, we’ve already seen an unprecedented number of people casting their votes early or using mail-in & absentee ballots, rather than waiting to vote on Election Day.
- State rules differ on poll closing times and when election officials can begin counting votes (incl. mail-in ballots).
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CAN’T TOUCH THIS
- Many swing states have policies that all but ensure delays in results.
- Mail-in ballots can’t be counted until Election Day (Nov. 3) in some states, like Georgia, Michigan & Wisconsin.
- In Nevada, ballots that arrive as late as Nov. 10 may be counted – so long as they are postmarked by Nov. 3.
- In Pennsylvania, absentee ballots received up to Nov. 6 may be counted – even if Nov. 3. postmark is unclear.
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“The longer it takes for the election results to be known, the greater the risk that they’re going to be questioned and second-guessed, and that we’re going to be that national news story that we really don’t want to be.”
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“A lot of people are worried that if it takes a long time to count, people are going to use that to say we can’t trust the results, when in fact it’s the exact opposite. It’s taking so long because of all these security measures to make sure the count is as accurate as possible.”
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Proceed cautiously with reports of early, absentee, and mail-in voting numbers - early reports indicate more Democrats are voting early or by mail, whereas more Republicans are expected to wait until Election Day. Concerns about election fraud and reliability of results is a truly bipartisan issue according to one recent poll. Read more on our source page.
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A Third Choice?
Some candidates running for President won’t appear on the debate stage … but they may still shape the race.
Why they matter.
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Why Only Two?
- A political system with two dominant parties dates back to the first elections in American history.
- In 1796, candidates from two major parties faced off in the first election for local lawmakers.
- The two parties to emerge: Federalist (supported the Constitution and strong federal government) & Democratic-Republicans (supported state, local power).
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“… potent engines, by which cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men will be enabled to subvert the power of the people and to usurp for themselves the reins of government, destroying afterwards the very engines which have lifted them to unjust dominion.”
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Why Only Two Now?
There’s no single reason.
One famous French sociologist theorized American politics supports only two political parties.
Why? A “winner-take-all” system. A candidate who wins the most votes gets the win. With no reward for runner-up, voters want to vote for the *likely* winner, and the two parties stay in power.
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NAMES TO KNOW
Every year, hundreds of people may run for President. Here are the three you’re most likely to hear about:
Jo Jorgenson (Libertarian Party) – She’s on the ballot in all 50 states.
Howie Hawkins (Green Party)
Kanye West (Birthday Party)
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WHY THEY MATTER
They may not make it onto the ballot; candidates need to meet state-imposed signature thresholds.
They may not make it onto the debate stage; they need to meet a polling threshold (for presidential debate, they need 15%+ support on major polls).
Regardless, they absolutely can influence the ultimate outcome of the election.
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Example: 2016 Election
In the following “swing” states, third-party candidates collectively won approx:
- 4% of the vote in Florida, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina
- 6% of the vote in Michigan & Wisconsin
President Trump won all these states by a margin of less than 4% (with the tightest race being in Michigan, which he won by just .3%).
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BIG PICTURE
“Every minor party or independent candidate who has run in modern history has taken some votes from (both parties).”
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Has a third-party candidate ever won the presidency in modern times? No. But former President Theodore Roosevelt ran as a third-party candidate and came in second to Woodrow Wilson in 1912. Ross Perot won 19% of the votes in 1992 but still didn't win any electoral votes.
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